Water FractalTier 2
at Store championship
decks
1
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
2
0-2-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
27.4%
avg ELO -21.7 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
37.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1476
· median 1476
· range 1476–1476
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1170
Q3 1397
1476
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 22.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Fire Exia | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.7% | -24.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
